International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2009 Oct 27;364(1532):3031-47. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2009.0156.
This paper summarizes new scientific evidence supporting the hypothesis that among the many factors contributing to international development, the combination of education and health stands out as a root cause on which other dimensions of development depend. Much of this recent analysis is based on new reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex and four levels of educational attainment for more than 120 countries using the demographic method of multi-state population dynamics. It also refers to a series of systems analytical population-development-environment case studies that comprehensively assess the role of population and education factors relative to other factors in the struggle for sustainable development. The paper also claims that most concerns about the consequences of population trends are in fact concerns about human capital, and that only by adding the 'quality' dimension of education to the traditionally narrow focus on size and age structure can some of the long-standing population controversies be resolved.
本文总结了新的科学证据,支持这样一种假设,即在促进国际发展的诸多因素中,教育和健康的结合是一个根本原因,其他发展层面都依赖于这个根本原因。最近的这些分析主要基于人口动态学的多状态人口推算方法,对 120 多个国家的年龄、性别和四种教育程度的人口进行了新的重建和预测。它还提到了一系列系统分析人口-发展-环境的案例研究,这些研究全面评估了人口和教育因素相对于其他因素在可持续发展斗争中的作用。本文还声称,对人口趋势后果的大多数担忧实际上是对人力资本的担忧,只有将教育的“质量”维度加入到传统上对规模和年龄结构的狭隘关注中,才能解决一些长期存在的人口争议。