Department of Civil Engineering, Tennessee State University, 3500 John A Merritt Blvd, Torrence Building, Suite 108B, Nashville, TN 37209, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):2063-7. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.06.018. Epub 2010 Jul 16.
This paper evaluates roadway and operational factors considered to influence crashes involving buses. Factors evaluated included those related to bus sizes and operation services. Negative binomial (NB) and multinomial logit (MNL) models were used in linearizing and quantifying these factors with respect to crash frequency and injury severities, respectively. The results showed that position of the bus travel lane, presence or absence of on-street shoulder parking, posted speed limit, lane width, median width, number of lanes per direction and number of vehicles per lane has a higher influence on bus crashes compared to other roadway and traffic factors. Wider lanes and medians were found to reduce probability of bus crashes while more lanes and higher volume per lane were found to increase the likelihood of occurrences of bus-related crashes. Roadways with higher posted speed limits excluding freeways were found to have high probability of crashes compared to low speed limit roadways. Buses traveling on the inner lanes and making left turns were found to have higher probability of crashes compared to those traveling on the right most lanes. The same factors were found to influence injury severity though with varying magnitudes compared to crash frequency.
本文评估了被认为会影响涉及公共汽车事故的道路和运营因素。评估的因素包括与公共汽车尺寸和运营服务相关的因素。负二项式（NB）和多项逻辑回归（MNL）模型分别用于线性化和量化这些因素与事故频率和伤害严重程度的关系。结果表明，与其他道路和交通因素相比，公共汽车行驶车道的位置、是否存在路肩停车、规定的限速、车道宽度、中央隔离带宽度、每个方向的车道数和每个车道的车辆数对公共汽车事故的影响更大。较宽的车道和中央隔离带被发现降低了公共汽车事故的概率，而更多的车道和更高的每车道车流量被发现增加了公共汽车相关事故的发生可能性。与低限速道路相比，发现限速较高（不包括高速公路）的道路发生事故的概率较高。与在最右侧车道行驶并进行左转的公共汽车相比，在内侧车道行驶的公共汽车发生事故的概率更高。尽管与事故频率相比，这些因素对伤害严重程度的影响程度不同，但同样会影响伤害严重程度。
