Geremew Gedefaye
Department of Civil Engineering, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia.
Sci Rep. 2025 Sep 1;15(1):32055. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09098-5.
Reducing road traffic accidents and enhancing road safety remain pressing concerns for effective transportation systems worldwide. However, in developing countries like Ethiopia, addressing these issues faces significant challenges. Despite the success of cost-effective safety measures in developed countries, similar strategies are often lacking in Ethiopia. This study aims to assess traffic crash patterns, contributing factors, and the effectiveness of safety measures along the Dejen to Bahir Dar highway in Ethiopia. The primary objective is to identify the key determinants of accident frequency and severity and evaluate the impact of safety interventions using advanced statistical models, including Empirical Bayes. The study finds that several factors significantly influence crash occurrence, including vehicle type, crash type, weather conditions, operational factors, road geometry, and driver demographics such as age, sex, and experience. By analyzing these factors, the paper proposes a set of practical engineering solutions, prioritizing high-risk groups like young and inexperienced drivers and advocating for stricter regulations on high-risk vehicles. Further recommendations focus on improving road safety during adverse weather conditions, enhancing road maintenance on straight sections, and implementing better enforcement of speed limits and driver fatigue regulations. Other proposed interventions include the installation of roadside barriers, new traffic signage, and improved pedestrian facilities. This study contributes valuable insights into the determinants of traffic crash in Ethiopia and offers data-driven recommendations for improving road safety. It also outlines future research avenues, such as improving data quality, conducting spatial analyses of crash hotspots, and exploring the influence of environmental and road conditions through advanced statistical, and Empirical Bayes methods.
减少道路交通事故并提高道路安全水平，仍然是全球有效交通系统面临的紧迫问题。然而，在埃塞俄比亚等发展中国家，解决这些问题面临重大挑战。尽管发达国家在具有成本效益的安全措施方面取得了成功，但埃塞俄比亚往往缺乏类似的策略。本研究旨在评估埃塞俄比亚德詹至巴赫达尔公路沿线的交通事故模式、促成因素以及安全措施的有效性。主要目标是确定事故频率和严重程度的关键决定因素，并使用包括经验贝叶斯在内的先进统计模型评估安全干预措施的影响。研究发现，几个因素对事故发生有显著影响，包括车辆类型、碰撞类型、天气状况、运营因素、道路几何形状以及驾驶员人口统计学特征，如年龄、性别和经验。通过分析这些因素，本文提出了一套切实可行的工程解决方案，优先考虑年轻和缺乏经验的驾驶员等高风险群体，并主张对高风险车辆实施更严格的监管。进一步的建议集中在恶劣天气条件下改善道路安全、加强直线路段的道路维护以及更好地执行速度限制和驾驶员疲劳规定。其他提议的干预措施包括安装路边障碍物、新的交通标志以及改善行人设施。本研究为埃塞俄比亚交通事故的决定因素提供了宝贵的见解，并为改善道路安全提供了数据驱动的建议。它还概述了未来的研究途径，如提高数据质量、对事故热点进行空间分析以及通过先进的统计和经验贝叶斯方法探索环境和道路条件的影响。
