De Marco R, Bernardinelli L
Istituto di Scienze Sanitarie Applicate, Cattedra di Biometria e Stastica Medica, Pavia.
Med Lav. 1990 Jul-Aug;81(4):273-82.
A brief presentation is made of the theory underlying the multistage model of Armitage and Doll and its implications in assessing the effect of exposure to a carcinogen. The theory foresees different relationships between cancer risk and the dependent time variables (time from beginning of exposure, age at start of employment, duration of exposure and time since end of exposure) according to whether the carcinogen acts in the early or late stages of the process of cell transformation leading to tumour formation. The trend in risk of death from lung cancer was studied in a cohort of workers exposed to hexavalent chromium followed up between 1948 and 1985. The results, referred to the multistage model, indicate that hexavalent chromium probably acts in the later stages of the cell transformation process; the implications of this hypothesis for prevention and/or occupational safety strategies are discussed.
简要介绍了阿米蒂奇和多尔多阶段模型的基础理论及其在评估致癌物暴露影响方面的意义。该理论预测，根据致癌物在导致肿瘤形成的细胞转化过程的早期还是晚期起作用，癌症风险与相关时间变量（从接触开始的时间、开始工作时的年龄、接触持续时间和接触结束后的时间）之间存在不同的关系。对一组在1948年至1985年期间接受随访的接触六价铬的工人的肺癌死亡风险趋势进行了研究。根据多阶段模型得出的结果表明，六价铬可能在细胞转化过程的后期起作用；讨论了这一假设对预防和/或职业安全策略的影响。
