Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2010 Oct;29(10):1933-41. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2010.0788. Epub 2010 Sep 9.
This paper presents updated national health spending projections for 2009-2019 that take into account recent comprehensive health reform legislation and other relevant changes in law and regulations. Relative to our February 2010 projections under prior law, average annual growth in national health spending over the projection period is estimated to be 0.2 percentage point higher than our previous estimate. The health care share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 0.3 percentage point higher in 2019. Within these net overall impacts are larger differences for trends in spending and spending growth by payer, attributable to reform's many major changes to health care coverage and financing.
本文提供了更新的 2009-2019 年国家卫生支出预测，其中考虑了最近全面医疗改革立法和其他相关法律法规的变化。与我们在 2010 年 2 月根据先前法律进行的预测相比，预测期内国家卫生支出的平均年增长率预计比我们之前的估计高出 0.2 个百分点。预计 2019 年卫生保健占国内生产总值（GDP）的份额将高出 0.3 个百分点。在这些净总体影响中，由于改革对医疗保健覆盖范围和融资的许多重大变化，按付款人划分的支出和支出增长趋势存在更大差异。
