Ministère de la Sante et des Sports, Haut Conseil de la Santé Publique, Paris, France.
Ann Ist Super Sanita. 2010;46(3):228-35. doi: 10.4415/ANN_10_03_02.
The impact of weather change and global pollution on the development and/or the transformation of microorganisms is no longer to be demonstrated. In this respect, heavy trends can be taken into account. This general context needs the development of anticipation procedures and the knowledge of the perception of prevention by the public for short, medium and long term actions. After a short discussion on the concept of emerging issues, the authors present some past examples of public health programs. These examples (malaria, dengue, chikungunya and cholera) are used to propose optimized ways of decision/action that may help to avoid possible crisis in a rapidly changing world. Then, the different lessons learnt are, under certain limits, associated with a forecasting analysis.
气候变化和全球污染对微生物的发展和/或转化的影响已毋庸置疑。在这方面，可以考虑到一些主要趋势。这种总体情况需要制定预测程序，并了解公众对短期、中期和长期行动的预防意识。在简要讨论了新出现问题的概念之后，作者介绍了一些过去公共卫生计划的例子。这些例子（疟疾、登革热、基孔肯雅热和霍乱）被用来提出优化的决策/行动方法，以帮助在瞬息万变的世界中避免可能出现的危机。然后，在一定的限制下，将学到的不同经验教训与预测分析联系起来。
