Adams M, Effertz T
Institut für Recht der Wirtschaft, Universität Hamburg, Germany.
Gesundheitswesen. 2011 Oct;73(10):705-12. doi: 10.1055/s-0030-1255089. Epub 2010 Sep 16.
The consumption of tobacco products is one of the main causes of illnesses. An often neglected but highly effective instrument for fiscal and preventive purposes is higher taxes on tobacco products. The tobacco industry however claims that higher taxes have tremendous effects on smuggling activity with additional costs with regard to law enforcement. The claim appears to be substantiated by a study which collects and documents the amounts of discarded empty cigarette packs, and which is used to estimate the fraction of illegally imported cigarettes. We show that this study makes use of systematic misspecifications and impreciseness and thus seems to pursue the aim of showing an exaggerated high amount of illegally imported cigarettes. The industry's claim that two thirds of non-taxed cigarettes in Germany are imported illegally, thus lacks any sound, well-grounded empirical corroboration.
烟草制品的消费是疾病的主要成因之一。提高烟草制品消费税是一种虽常被忽视但财政和预防效果显著的手段。然而，烟草行业声称，提高税收对走私活动影响巨大，还会增加执法成本。一项收集并记录废弃空烟盒数量以估算非法进口香烟比例的研究似乎证实了这一说法。我们发现，该研究存在系统性的错误设定和不精确性，似乎旨在夸大非法进口香烟的数量。因此，烟草行业称德国三分之二的免税香烟是非法进口的这一说法，缺乏任何可靠、有充分依据的实证支持。
