Iglesias Roberto Magno
Center for Integration and Development Studies (CINDES), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2016 Oct;40(4):243-249.
The Brazilian cigarette excise tax reform of 2011 increased tax rates significantly in the presence of a high proportion of illegal and cheap cigarettes contributing to total consumption. Prior to 2011, tobacco tax policy in Brazil had reduced excise tax share on consumer prices, for fear of smuggling. This report examines two hypotheses explaining why tax authorities changed direction. The first is related to lack of concern regarding smuggling in tobacco industry pricing behavior before 2011 (rather than reducing prices following tax reduction, legal companies increased net of tax prices above inflation and key costs). The second hypothesis regards inconsistent industry assessments of the size of the illicit market, which ultimately undermined the credibility of the industry with tax authorities. The author concludes that the 2011 reform was designed to revert the weakness of previous policies, and did indeed succeed. The post-2011 experience in Brazil indicates that increased cigarette excise taxes can increase government revenues and reduce smoking prevalence and consumption despite widespread smuggling of tobacco products.
2011年巴西香烟消费税改革大幅提高了税率，当时非法且低价香烟在总消费量中占比很高。2011年之前，由于担心走私问题，巴西的烟草税收政策降低了消费税在消费者价格中所占的份额。本报告探讨了两个假说，以解释税务机关为何改变方向。第一个假说与2011年之前税务机关对烟草行业定价行为中的走私问题缺乏关注有关（合法公司并未在减税之后降低价格，而是将税后价格提高到高于通胀和关键成本的水平）。第二个假说认为，行业对非法市场规模的评估不一致，最终损害了行业在税务机关眼中的可信度。作者得出结论，2011年的改革旨在扭转先前政策的弱点，并且确实取得了成功。巴西2011年之后的经验表明，尽管烟草制品普遍存在走私现象，但提高香烟消费税仍可增加政府收入，并降低吸烟率和消费量。
