Schwarzkopf Yonathan, Farmer J Doyne
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, USA.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2010 Jun;81(6 Pt 2):066113. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.066113. Epub 2010 Jun 18.
The mutual fund industry manages about a quarter of the assets in the U.S. stock market and thus plays an important role in the U.S. economy. The question of how much control is concentrated in the hands of the largest players is best quantitatively discussed in terms of the tail behavior of the mutual fund size distribution. We study the distribution empirically and show that the tail is much better described by a log-normal than a power law, indicating less concentration than, for example, personal income. The results are highly statistically significant and are consistent across fifteen years. This contradicts a recent theory concerning the origin of the power law tails of the trading volume distribution. Based on the analysis in a companion paper, the log-normality is to be expected, and indicates that the distribution of mutual funds remains perpetually out of equilibrium.
共同基金行业管理着美国股票市场约四分之一的资产,因此在美国经济中发挥着重要作用。关于最大参与者手中集中了多少控制权的问题,最好从共同基金规模分布的尾部行为角度进行定量讨论。我们对该分布进行了实证研究,结果表明,用对数正态分布比幂律分布能更好地描述尾部,这表明其集中度低于例如个人收入的集中度。结果在统计上具有高度显著性,并且在十五年间保持一致。这与最近关于交易量分布幂律尾部起源的理论相矛盾。基于一篇相关论文中的分析,对数正态分布是可以预期的,这表明共同基金的分布一直处于非均衡状态。