Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim. Ll3, 17. 68131 Mannheim, Germany.
Demography. 2010 Aug;47(3):719-33. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0122.
Premarital cohabitation has been found to be positively correlated with the likelihood of marital dissolution in the United States. To reassess this link, I estimate proportional hazard models of marital dissolution for first marriages by using pooled data from the 1988, 1995, and 2002 surveys of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). These results suggest that the positive relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital instability has weakened for more recent birth and marriage cohorts. Using multiple marital outcomes for a person to account for one source of unobserved heterogeneity, panel models suggest that cohabitation is not selective of individuals with higher risk of marital dissolution and may be a stabilizing factor for higher-order marriages. Further research with more recent data is needed to assess whether these results are statistical artifacts caused by data weaknesses in the NSFG.
在美国，婚前同居与婚姻解体的可能性呈正相关。为了重新评估这种关联，我使用全国家庭增长调查（NSFG）1988 年、1995 年和 2002 年的汇总数据，对初婚的婚姻解体比例风险模型进行了估计。这些结果表明，婚前同居与婚姻不稳定之间的积极关系，对于最近出生和结婚的队列已经减弱。对于一个人使用多种婚姻结果来解释一个未观察到的异质性来源，面板模型表明，同居并不能选择具有更高婚姻解体风险的个体，对于更高阶的婚姻来说，它可能是一个稳定因素。需要使用更近期的数据进行进一步研究，以评估这些结果是否是由于 NSFG 数据弱点造成的统计假象。
