Reilly John J, Bonataki Maria, Leary Samantha D, Wells Jonathan C, Davey-Smith George, Emmett Pauline, Steer Colin, Ness Andrew R, Sherriff Andrea
University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.
Int J Pediatr Obes. 2011 Jun;6(2-2):e138-43. doi: 10.3109/17477166.2010.497538. Epub 2010 Sep 30.
The overweight - as distinct from obese - child is a potential target for obesity prevention interventions, on the assumption that overweight often progresses to obesity. However, there is limited empirical evidence on the probability that overweight progresses to obesity in contemporary children. Aim. To quantify progression from overweight to obesity in a large contemporary cohort of children.
Changes in weight status were studied longitudinally in 7-year-olds (n=5 175) participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), over a 6-year period. Obesity was defined as BMI z-score ≥1.64 and overweight defined as BMI z-score ≥1.04 but <1.64.
Adjusted odds ratio for progression to obesity at age 13 for overweight at age 7 was 18.1 (95% CI 12.8-25.6), and 34% of overweight children at age 7 became obese by age 13 years.
The present study could inform judgements as to the value of monitoring changes in weight status in overweight children, and the extent to which the overweight state might be a useful target of future obesity prevention interventions.
超重儿童（与肥胖儿童不同）是肥胖预防干预措施的潜在目标，基于超重往往会发展为肥胖这一假设。然而，关于当代儿童中超重发展为肥胖的可能性，实证证据有限。目的：量化当代一大群儿童中超重发展为肥胖的情况。
对参与阿冯父母与儿童纵向研究（ALSPAC）的5175名7岁儿童进行了为期6年的体重状况纵向变化研究。肥胖定义为BMI z评分≥1.64，超重定义为BMI z评分≥1.04但<1.64。
7岁时超重的儿童在13岁时发展为肥胖的调整优势比为18.1（95%置信区间12.8 - 25.6），7岁时超重的儿童中有34%在13岁时成为肥胖。
本研究可为判断监测超重儿童体重状况变化的价值以及超重状态可能成为未来肥胖预防干预有用目标的程度提供参考。
