Chen J G
Department of Epidemiology, Qidong Liver Cancer Institute, Jiangsu.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 1990 Nov;24(6):347-50.
An epidemiologic study of lung cancer mortality in Qidong in the years 1958-1989 was performed based on the data from retrospective survey and registry on cancer. The mortality of the cancer was found to be increasing since 1958. For instance, the rate was 1.04/100,000 in 1958, 9.00/100,000 in 1972, and 21.38/100,000 in 1989. Grey dynamic model was used and the equation established was written in the form Yt = (X1 + 285.078676) exp [0.040 851 (t-1)]-285. 078 676. The rising trend in lung cancer leads to the prediction that this disease will rank second instead of stomach at the end of this century, and may eventually overtake liver cancer as the number one cancer death cause two decades later. As a research strategy lung cancer studies in the rural area should be equally stressed.
基于癌症回顾性调查和登记数据，对启东1958 - 1989年肺癌死亡率进行了一项流行病学研究。发现自1958年以来癌症死亡率一直在上升。例如，1958年的死亡率为1.04/10万，1972年为9.00/10万，1989年为21.38/10万。使用灰色动态模型，建立的方程形式为Yt = (X1 + 285.078676) exp [0.040 851 (t - 1)] - 285. 078 676。肺癌呈上升趋势，据此预测，到本世纪末，这种疾病将取代胃癌升至第二位，并且可能在二十年后最终超过肝癌成为头号癌症死因。作为一项研究策略，农村地区的肺癌研究也应同样受到重视。
