State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2010 Oct 22;5(10):e13575. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013575.
Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.
自 2003 年底以来，高致病性甲型 H5N1 流感已引发了数波疫情，席卷欧亚非大陆。为 H5N1 病毒的重组或突变做准备已成为全球当务之急。尽管已从不同角度研究了 H5N1 的传播机制，但它的主要传播媒介和传播途径问题仍未解决。
方法/主要发现：基于对 2003 年 11 月至 2006 年 12 月全球 H5N1 疫情的时间和地点的汇编，我们报告了一项跨学科努力，该努力结合了地理空间信息学方法和生物信息学方法，以形成对 H5N1 病毒传播机制的更深入了解。通过基于球面坐标的分析（在地理分析中通常不进行这种分析），我们揭示了全球 H5N1 病例在不同尺度上的明显时空聚类，我们认为这些聚类与 H5N1 病毒的两种不同传播模式有关。然后，通过对地理和系统发育分析的跨学科研究，我们获得了 H5N1 传播途径图。我们的结果为有关哪种禽类宿主负责 H5N1 传播的竞争假设提供了见识。
结论/意义：我们发现，尽管华南和东南亚可能是禽流感的病毒库，但西伯利亚东部可能是 H5N1 疫情的源头。来自不同地方的候鸟的集中增加了基因突变的可能性。应特别注意西伯利亚东部，西伯利亚中部和华南地区，以加强对 H5N1 病毒的监测和候鸟的监测。
