Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Scand J Psychol. 2011 Feb;52(1):8-20. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9450.2010.00843.x. Epub 2010 Nov 4.
People are often mistaken when estimating and predicting quantities, and sometimes they report values that they know are false: they lie. There exists, however, little research devoted to how such deviations are being perceived. In four vignette studies, participants were asked to rate the accuracy of inaccurate statements about quantities (prices, numbers and amounts). The results indicate that overstatements are generally judged to be more inaccurate than understatements of the same magnitude; self-favorable (optimistic) statements are considered more inaccurate than unfavorable (pessimistic) statements, and false reports (lies) are perceived to be more inaccurate than equally mistaken estimates. Lies about the future did not differ from lies about the past, but own lies were perceived as larger than the same lies attributed to another person. It is suggested that estimates are judged according to how close they come to the true values (close estimates are more correct than estimates that are less close), whereas lies are judged as deviant from truth, with less importance attached to the magnitude of the deviation.
人们在估计和预测数量时经常会出错,有时他们会报告自己知道是虚假的数值:他们在撒谎。然而,对于这些偏差是如何被感知的,研究甚少。在四项情景研究中,参与者被要求对关于数量(价格、数字和数量)的不准确陈述的准确性进行评级。结果表明,夸大的陈述通常被认为比同等幅度的低估更不准确;有利(乐观)的陈述比不利(悲观)的陈述被认为更不准确,而虚假报告(谎言)被认为比同等错误的估计更不准确。关于未来的谎言与关于过去的谎言没有区别,但自己的谎言被认为比同样的谎言归因于另一个人更大。研究建议,对估计的判断是根据它们与真实值的接近程度(接近的估计比不接近的估计更正确),而谎言则被判断为偏离事实,对偏离的幅度重视程度较低。