Department of Mathematics, Addis Ababa University, P.O. Box 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Math Biosci. 2011 Jan;229(1):41-9. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2010.10.007. Epub 2010 Nov 5.
A simple mathematical model for human disease epidemics that takes the human learning behaviour and self-protective measures into account is proposed and investigated. We have analysed the effect of endogenous self-protective measures with respect to the prevalence level of the disease and conversely. In the model it is assumed that people start reacting against contracting a disease with self-protective measures whenever they are informed about the disease and when the burden of the disease is in a recognizable stage. It is shown that increasing the average effectiveness of self-protective measures is more important in decreasing the prevalence of a disease than increasing the proportion of individuals in a population into which awareness is created.
提出并研究了一个考虑人类学习行为和自我保护措施的简单人类疾病流行数学模型。我们分析了内源性自我保护措施对疾病流行程度的影响,反之亦然。在该模型中,假设人们一旦得知疾病的存在并且疾病处于可识别阶段,就会开始采取自我保护措施来预防疾病。结果表明,提高自我保护措施的平均有效性比增加人群中获得意识的个体比例更能降低疾病的流行率。