Kassa Semu M, Njagarah John B H, Terefe Yibeltal A
Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Botswana International University of Science and Technology (BIUST), Private Bag 016, Palapye, Botswana.
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Limpopo, South Africa.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Sep;138:109968. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109968. Epub 2020 Jun 5.
In this article, a mathematical model for the transmission of COVID-19 disease is formulated and analysed. It is shown that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation at when recovered individuals do not develop a permanent immunity for the disease. In the absence of reinfection, it is proved that the model is without backward bifurcation and the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for . By using available data, the model is validated and parameter values are estimated. The sensitivity of the value of to changes in any of the parameter values involved in its formula is analysed. Moreover, various mitigation strategies are investigated using the proposed model and it is observed that the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals may play the major role in the re-emergence of the disease in the future. Therefore, it is recommended that in the absence of vaccination, countries need to develop capacities to detect and isolate at least 30% of the asymptomatic infectious group of individuals while treating in isolation at least 50% of symptomatic patients to control the disease.
在本文中，构建并分析了一个关于COVID-19疾病传播的数学模型。结果表明，当康复个体对该疾病没有产生永久免疫力时，该模型在[具体条件]下呈现后向分岔。在没有再次感染的情况下，证明了该模型不存在后向分岔，并且对于[具体条件]，无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。利用现有数据对模型进行了验证并估计了参数值。分析了[具体参数]值对其公式中所涉及的任何参数值变化的敏感性。此外，使用所提出的模型研究了各种缓解策略，并且观察到无症状感染个体组可能在未来疾病的再次出现中起主要作用。因此，建议在没有疫苗接种的情况下，各国需要发展能力，检测并隔离至少30%的无症状感染个体组，同时对至少50%的有症状患者进行隔离治疗以控制疾病。
