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孟加拉国北部农村龙卷风破坏的流行病学:死亡和受伤的风险因素。

Epidemiology of tornado destruction in rural northern Bangladesh: risk factors for death and injury.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington, and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States.

出版信息

Disasters. 2011 Apr;35(2):329-45. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01214.x. Epub 2010 Nov 15.

Abstract

The epidemiology of tornado-related disasters in the developing world is poorly understood. An August 2005 post-tornado cohort study in rural Bangladesh identified elevated levels of death and injury among the elderly (≥ 60 years of age) (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 8.9 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI): 3.9-20.2) and AOR = 1.6 (95 per cent CI: 1.4-1.8), respectively), as compared to 15-24 year-olds, and among those outdoors versus indoors during the tornado (AOR = 10.4 (95 per cent CI: 5.5-19.9) and AOR = 6.6 (95 per cent CI: 5.8-7.5), respectively). Females were 1.24 times (95 per cent CI: 1.15-1.33) more likely to be injured than males. Elevated risk of injury was significantly associated with structural damage to the house and tin construction materials. Seeking treatment was protective against death among the injured, odds ratio = 0.08 (95 per cent CI: 0.03-0.21). Further research is needed to develop injury prevention strategies and to address disparities in risk between age groups and between men and women.

摘要

发展中国家龙卷风相关灾害的流行病学情况了解甚少。2005 年 8 月,孟加拉国农村地区开展了一项龙卷风灾害后队列研究,结果显示老年人(≥60 岁)的死亡率和受伤率较高(调整后的优势比(OR)=8.9(95%置信区间(CI):3.9-20.2)和 AOR = 1.6(95%CI:1.4-1.8)),与 15-24 岁的年轻人相比,以及在龙卷风期间处于室外与室内的人群相比(OR = 10.4(95%CI:5.5-19.9)和 AOR = 6.6(95%CI:5.8-7.5))。与男性相比,女性受伤的可能性高 1.24 倍(95%CI:1.15-1.33)。受伤风险的显著升高与房屋结构损坏和锡制建筑材料有关。受伤者寻求治疗对降低死亡率具有保护作用,比值比(OR)=0.08(95%CI:0.03-0.21)。需要进一步研究来制定损伤预防策略,并解决不同年龄组以及男性和女性之间风险差异的问题。

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