Department of Education, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Risk Anal. 2011 Apr;31(4):645-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01529.x. Epub 2010 Nov 15.
The outbreak of the pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 (swine flu) between March and April 2009 challenged the health services around the world. Indeed, misconceptions and worries have led the public to refuse to comply with precautionary measures. Moreover, there have been limited efforts to develop models incorporating cognitive, social-contextual, and affective factors as predictors of compliance with recommended behaviors. The aim of this study was to apply a social-cognitive model of risk perception and individual response to pandemic influenza H1N1 in a representative sample of Italian population. A sample of 1,010 Italians of at least 18 years of age took part in a telephone survey. The survey included measures of perceived preparedness of institutions, family members and friends' levels of worry, exposure to media campaigns (social-contextual factors), perceived coping efficacy, likelihood of infection, perceived seriousness, personal impact, and severity of illness (cognitive evaluations), affective response and compliance with recommended behaviors. Results demonstrated that affective response fully mediated the relationship between cognitive evaluations and social-contextual factors (with the exception of exposure to media campaigns) and compliance with recommended behaviors. Perceived coping efficacy and preparedness of institutions were not related to compliance with recommended behaviors.
2009 年 3 月至 4 月期间爆发的大流行性流感 H1N1（猪流感）对全球卫生服务构成了挑战。事实上，误解和担忧导致公众拒绝遵守预防措施。此外，在开发将认知、社会背景和情感因素整合为预测遵守推荐行为的因素的模型方面，努力有限。本研究旨在将对大流行性流感 H1N1 的风险感知和个体反应的社会认知模型应用于意大利代表性人群样本中。一项针对至少 18 岁的 1010 名意大利人的电话调查参与了该研究。该调查包括对机构、家庭成员和朋友的担忧程度、对媒体宣传活动的接触（社会背景因素）、应对效能感、感染可能性、感知严重性、个人影响和疾病严重程度（认知评估）、情感反应和遵守推荐行为的衡量。结果表明，情感反应完全中介了认知评估和社会背景因素（媒体宣传活动除外）与遵守推荐行为之间的关系。应对效能感和机构的准备情况与遵守推荐行为无关。
