Shen Ye-na, Lü Jun, Chen Jun-hua, Chen Ding-jiang, Shi Yi-ming
Department of Natural Resources, College of Environmental Science and Resources, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2010 Aug;31(8):1768-74.
An inversion formula for the export loads of nonpoint sources pollution in headwater area was established based on one-dimensional water quality equation, and it was used to calculate the pollution loads for tributaries in the headwater catchment of Laohutan Reservoir, in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province of China. Monte Carlo method was adopted to determine the sensitivity about each input parameter in the inversion formula. Because each sensitive parameter can be measured directly in the inversion formula, so that this approach can decreased calculation error, which is often caused by the parameter estimation. Furthermore, the inversion formula can be adopted to calculate pollution loading on any time scale. Monthly nonpoint sources pollution export loads in 2007 were calculated by the model in the research catchment. Results showed that pollution loads in stream were significantly positive related with flow rates (r > 0. 90, p < 0.01), and the flow rate was the most sensitive factor in the model, followed by the nutrient concentration and background concentration at the stream end. While, comprehensive degradation coefficient and flow velocity contributed very little influence to the model uncertainty.
基于一维水质方程建立了源头区域非点源污染输出负荷的反演公式,并将其用于计算中国浙江省湖州市老虎潭水库源头集水区各支流的污染负荷。采用蒙特卡罗方法确定反演公式中各输入参数的敏感性。由于反演公式中的每个敏感参数都可以直接测量,因此该方法可以减少参数估计经常导致的计算误差。此外,该反演公式可用于计算任何时间尺度上的污染负荷。通过该模型计算了研究集水区2007年的月非点源污染输出负荷。结果表明,河流中的污染负荷与流量显著正相关(r>0.90,p<0.01),流量是模型中最敏感的因素,其次是河流末端的营养物浓度和背景浓度。而综合降解系数和流速对模型不确定性的影响很小。