Technische Universität Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Department of Transport Planning, August-Schmidt-Str. 10, 44227 Dortmund, Germany.
Accid Anal Prev. 2011 Jan;43(1):307-22. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.08.029. Epub 2010 Oct 8.
This paper aims to spatially differentiate the road accident risk associated with living at a certain place of residence. Official accident data usually record the place the accident occurred, but not the casualties' places of residence. Among those involved in an accident at a certain place there may obviously be some non-residents, such as in-commuters and transients. Hence spatial analysis based on place of accident may not be suitable for drawing conclusions about specific risk levels for people living in certain places. People's risk of encountering an accident in areas other than that where they live may vary with their mobility. We report on two case studies for the German states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, which are based on casualties' places of residence. We draw on two data sets both of which have specific advantages and disadvantages. From the data we calculate population-based risk figures on the district level and, for Lower Saxony, on the municipality level. For North Rhine-Westphalia these are categorised by age group and transport mode. We also investigate to what extent accident related analyses can be used to estimate residential related risks. The results show that the risk of being killed or seriously injured in a road accident is considerably lower for the population of agglomeration cores than for the suburban and rural population. Macro-economically this means that suburban and rural areas have markedly higher accident costs than cities.
本文旨在对与居住在特定地点相关的道路事故风险进行空间差异分析。官方事故数据通常记录事故发生地点，但不记录伤亡人员的居住地。在某个地方发生事故的人员中，显然可能有一些非居民，如通勤者和流动人口。因此，基于事故地点的空间分析可能不适合得出关于特定人群居住在特定地点的风险水平的结论。人们在居住地以外的地区遭遇事故的风险可能因他们的流动性而有所不同。我们报告了德国北莱茵-威斯特法伦州和下萨克森州的两个案例研究，这些研究基于伤亡人员的居住地。我们利用了两个数据集，它们都有各自的优缺点。我们从数据中计算了基于人口的地区层面的风险数据，以及在下萨克森州，还计算了基于市的风险数据。对于北莱茵-威斯特法伦州，我们根据年龄组和交通方式进行了分类。我们还调查了事故相关分析在多大程度上可以用于估计与居住相关的风险。结果表明，与聚居核心区的人口相比，郊区和农村人口在道路事故中死亡或重伤的风险要低得多。从宏观经济角度来看，这意味着郊区和农村地区的事故成本明显高于城市。
