[Mortality time trends and the incidence and mortality estimation and projection for lung cancer in China].

BACKGROUND

Using the most comprehensive available data on lung cancer incidence and mortality in China, the mortality time trends were described and the incidence and mortality profile in 2000 and 2005 were estimated and projected, so as to provide evidence and reference for clinic, basic research and making prevention and control strategy for lung cancer in China.

METHODS

The Joinpoint model was used to analyze the lung cancer mortality trends during 1987-1999, based on data reported to WHO from the Ministry of Health in China. Combined with the data from the second national mortality survey in 1990-1992 and the lung cancer incidence and mortality data from several cancer registries in China which involved in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, the 8th version, using the log-linear model (based on Poisson distribution), the incidence and mortality profile for lung cancer in 2000 and 2005 in China were estimated and projected.

RESULTS

The age-standardized mortality rates increased during the study period, especially in rural areas (the expected annual percentage changes were 2.7% in men and 3.6% for women, both were statistically significant) and showed among almost all age groups (above age 15). From 2000 to 2005, there would be 0.101 million more lung cancer deaths (from 327643 in 2000 to 428936 in 2005) and 0.116 million more new incident cases (from 381487 in 2000 to 497908 in 2005).

CONCLUSIONS

Due to the double effects from both changes in the risk factors for the disease and the population growth and aging, lung cancer is becoming one of the most common and increasing malignant neoplasmin China . The prevention and control for this disease will be theemphasis for future cancer control strategy of China in which tobacco control is critically important .