Ö. Kyrkogatan 35, Nyköping, Sweden.
J Environ Radioact. 2011 Feb;102(2):119-27. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2010.11.002. Epub 2010 Dec 8.
Assessment of the environmental and radiological consequences of a nuclear accident requires the management of a great deal of data and information as well as the use of predictive models. Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) are essential tools for this kind of complex assessment and for assisting experts with a rational decision process. The present work focuses on the assessment of the main features of selected state-of-the-art CDSS for off-site management of freshwater ecosystems contaminated by radionuclides. This study involved both developers and end-users of the assessed CDSS and was based on practical customisation exercises, installation and application of the decision systems. Potential end-users can benefit from the availability of several ready-to-use CDSS that allow one to run different kinds of models aimed at predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in aquatic ecosystems, evaluating doses to humans, assessing the effectiveness of different kinds of environmental management interventions and ranking these interventions, accounting for their social, economic and environmental impacts. As a result of the present assessment, the importance of CDSS "integration" became apparent: in many circumstances, different CDSS can be used as complementary tools for the decision-making process. The results of this assessment can also be useful for the future development and improvement of the CDSS.
评估核事故的环境和放射性后果需要管理大量的数据和信息,并使用预测模型。计算机化决策支持系统(CDSS)是这种复杂评估以及协助专家进行合理决策过程的重要工具。本工作重点评估了选定的最先进的 CDSS 用于场外管理受放射性核素污染的淡水生态系统的主要特征。这项研究涉及评估的 CDSS 的开发人员和最终用户,并且基于实际的定制练习、决策系统的安装和应用。潜在的最终用户可以从多个即用型 CDSS 的可用性中受益,这些 CDSS 允许运行不同类型的模型,旨在预测放射性核素在水生生态系统中的行为,评估对人类的剂量,评估不同类型的环境管理干预措施的有效性,并对这些干预措施进行排名,同时考虑其社会、经济和环境影响。由于本评估的结果,CDSS“集成”的重要性变得明显:在许多情况下,不同的 CDSS 可以作为决策过程的补充工具使用。本评估的结果也可以为 CDSS 的未来发展和改进提供有用的信息。