Time-dependent infection probability of classical swine fever via excretions and secretions.

Several routes contribute to the spread of classical swine fever (CSF) during outbreaks of this disease. However, for many infected herds in recent epidemics, no route of virus introduction could be indentified. To obtain more insight into the relative importance of secretions and excretions in transmission of CSF virus, a model was developed. This model quantified the daily transmission probabilities from one infectious pig to one susceptible pig, using quantitative data on: (a) virus excretion by infected pigs, (b) survival of virus in the environment and (c) virus dose needed to infect susceptible pigs. Furthermore, the model predicted the relative contribution of secretions and excretions to this daily probability of infection of a susceptible pig. Three virus strains that differed in virulence were evaluated with the model: the highly virulent strain Brescia, the moderately virulent strain Paderborn and the low virulent strain Zoelen. Results suggest that it is highly probable that susceptible pigs in contact with Brescia or Paderborn infected pigs will be infected. For a pig in contact with a Zoelen infected pig, infection is less likely. When contact with blood is excluded, the predicted overall probability of infection was only 0.08 over the entire infectious period. The three strains differed in the relative contribution of secretions and excretions to transmission, although blood had a high probability of causing infection of a susceptible pig when in contact with a pig infected with any strain. This supports the statement that during outbreaks, control measures should ideally be based on the characteristics of the specific virus strain involved, which implies the development of strain-specific measures.