Benjamini Yoav
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Tel Aviv University, Israel.
Biom J. 2010 Dec;52(6):708-21. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200900299. Epub 2010 Nov 19.
The previous decade can be viewed as a second golden for era Multiple Comparisons research. I argue that much of the success stems from our being able to address real current needs. At the same time, this success generated a plethora of concepts for error rate and power, as well as multiplicity of methods for addressing them. These confuse the users of our methodology and pose a threat. To avoid the threat, it is our responsibility to match our theoretical goals to the goals of the users of statistics. Only then should we match the methods to the theoretical goals. Considerations related to such needs are discussed: simultaneous inference or selective inference, testing or estimation, decision making or scientific reporting. I then further argue that the vitality of our field in the future - as a research area - depends upon our ability to continue and address the real needs of statistical analyses in current problems. Two application areas offering new challenges have received less attention in our community to date are discussed. Safety analysis in clinical trials, where I offer an aggregated safety assessment methodology and functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging.
过去十年可被视为多重比较研究的第二个黄金时代。我认为,这一成功很大程度上源于我们能够满足当前的实际需求。与此同时,这一成功催生了大量关于错误率和功效的概念,以及处理这些问题的多种方法。这些让我们方法的使用者感到困惑,并构成了一种威胁。为避免这种威胁,我们有责任使我们的理论目标与统计数据使用者的目标相匹配。只有这样,我们才应使方法与理论目标相匹配。讨论了与这些需求相关的考虑因素:同时推断或选择性推断、检验或估计、决策或科学报告。然后我进一步认为,作为一个研究领域,我们这个领域未来的活力取决于我们能否继续并满足当前问题中统计分析的实际需求。讨论了两个迄今为止在我们的领域中受到较少关注但带来新挑战的应用领域。临床试验中的安全性分析,我在此提供了一种综合安全性评估方法以及功能磁共振成像。