Robinson J C
School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Milbank Q. 1990;68(2):245-65.
The social rate of discount--that is, the way decision makers today evaluate future consequences of collective activity--raises difficult issues of intergenerational justice. When benefits are discounted at the present rate the United States government requires, serious efforts to promote public health over the long term will fail cost-benefit tests. No consensus exists among theorists to establish fair rates; philosophers support discounting with economic arguments that economists reject, while economists no less paradoxically support the concept using philosophical arguments that philosophers disavow. A new emphasis on the role of consumers' and citizens' time preferences, however, will keep open rather than close debates on the social discount rate.
社会贴现率——即当今决策者评估集体活动未来后果的方式——引发了代际正义的棘手问题。当按照美国政府要求的当前贴现率对收益进行贴现时，从长期促进公众健康的认真努力将通不过成本效益测试。理论家中不存在确定公平贴现率的共识；哲学家们用经济学家拒绝的经济论据支持贴现，而经济学家们同样自相矛盾地用哲学家否认的哲学论据支持这一概念。然而，对消费者和公民时间偏好作用的新强调将使关于社会贴现率的辩论保持开放而非结束。
