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问题内容和科学背景对信息搜索以及相关性的评估和评估的影响。

The effects of problem content and scientific background on information search and the assessment and valuation of correlations.

机构信息

School of Education, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91905, Israel.

出版信息

Mem Cognit. 2011 Jan;39(1):107-16. doi: 10.3758/s13421-010-0008-5.

DOI:10.3758/s13421-010-0008-5
PMID:21264572
Abstract

The effects of problem contents and one's scientific background on the detection of correlations and the assessment of their strength were studied using a task that required active data search, assessment of the strength of a correlation, and monetary valuation of the correlation's predictive utility. Participants (N = 72) who were trained either in the natural sciences or in the social sciences and humanities explored data sets differing in contents and actual strength of correlation. Data search was consistent across all variables: Participants drew relatively small samples whose relative sizes would favor the detection of a correlation, if one existed. In contrast, the assessment of the correlation strength and the valuation of its predictive utility were strongly related not only to its objective strength, but also to the correspondence between problem contents and one's scientific background: When the two matched, correlations were judged to be stronger and more valuable than when they did not.

摘要

本研究采用一项需要主动搜索数据、评估相关性强度以及对相关性预测效用进行货币价值评估的任务,考察了问题内容和个体的科学背景对相关性检测和强度评估的影响。研究参与者(N=72)分别接受了自然科学或社会科学与人文科学方面的培训,他们探索了内容和实际相关性强度不同的数据集合。所有变量的数据搜索都是一致的:参与者抽取的样本相对较小,如果存在相关性,那么这些样本的相对大小有利于检测到相关性。相比之下,相关性强度的评估和对其预测效用的评估不仅与相关性的客观强度密切相关,还与问题内容和个体科学背景的一致性有关:当两者匹配时,相关性被判断为更强且更有价值,而当两者不匹配时,相关性则被判断为较弱且价值较低。

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本文引用的文献

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Base rates, contingencies, and prediction behavior.基础概率、偶然性与预测行为。
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Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning.基于理论的归纳学习与推理贝叶斯模型。
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Cogn Psychol. 2007 Feb;54(1):33-61. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2006.04.004. Epub 2006 Jun 9.
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Is developing scientific thinking all about learning to control variables?培养科学思维就是要学会控制变量吗?
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Dissociation between judgments and outcome-expectancy measures in covariation learning: a signal detection theory approach.共变学习中判断与结果预期测量之间的分离:一种信号检测理论方法。
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