a Center for Research on Population and Health , American University of Beirut , 305 Van Dyck Hall , Beirut , Lebanon.
Glob Public Health. 2011;6(5):488-504. doi: 10.1080/17441692.2010.546806. Epub 2011 Feb 15.
The July 2006 war in Lebanon was one of the country's shortest wars. Yet perhaps it was also the worst interstate war in the history of Lebanon. Over the course of 33 days, the war resulted in over 1000 deaths, thousands of injuries, large-scale destruction of infrastructure and properties, as well as massive population displacements. Approximately a third of the Lebanese population was displaced during the war. Population-based survey data collected in early 2007 and logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of some demographic and socio-economic factors on displacement, stratified by war-affected and non-affected areas. The sample was restricted to adults who were at least 18 years old. We found that the intensity of the conflict as captured by the region of residence was understandably the most important variable in predicting displacement. The odds of displacement were higher for those who were younger in age, married or who had obtained a higher education. Females and those of Lebanese nationality had higher odds of displacement than their male and non-Lebanese counterparts, but only in war-damaged areas. Interestingly, household composition and size, economic standing and car ownership were not related to the odds of displacement. Findings from the present study may help policy-makers and humanitarian agencies in their planning efforts during emergencies, including wars.
2006 年 7 月的黎巴嫩战争是该国持续时间最短的战争之一。然而，它或许也是黎巴嫩历史上最严重的国家间战争。在 33 天的战争中，造成超过 1000 人死亡，数千人受伤，基础设施和财产遭到大规模破坏，以及大量人口流离失所。大约三分之一的黎巴嫩人口在战争中流离失所。利用 2007 年初收集的基于人口的调查数据和逻辑回归模型，按受战争影响和未受影响地区分层，研究了一些人口和社会经济因素对流离失所的影响。样本仅限于年龄至少 18 岁的成年人。我们发现，居住地区的冲突强度显然是预测流离失所的最重要变量。年龄较小、已婚或受过高等教育的人，流离失所的可能性更高。女性和黎巴嫩国籍的人比男性和非黎巴嫩人更有可能流离失所，但仅在战争受损地区。有趣的是，家庭构成和规模、经济地位和汽车拥有量与流离失所的几率无关。本研究的结果可能有助于政策制定者和人道主义机构在包括战争在内的紧急情况下进行规划工作。
