MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S-C Energy and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Apr 15;409(10):1757-73. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.01.036. Epub 2011 Feb 25.
In this study, an inexact-chance-constrained water quality management (ICC-WQM) model is developed for planning regional environmental management under uncertainty. This method is based on an integration of interval linear programming (ILP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP) techniques. ICC-WQM allows uncertainties presented as both probability distributions and interval values to be incorporated within a general optimization framework. Complexities in environmental management systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method is applied to planning chemical-industry development in Binhai New Area of Tianjin, China. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation have been obtained. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various system-reliability constraints of water environmental capacity of pollutant. Tradeoffs between system benefits and constraint-violation risks can also be tackled. They are helpful for supporting (a) decision of wastewater discharge and government investment, (b) formulation of local policies regarding water consumption, economic development and industry structure, and (c) analysis of interactions among economic benefits, system reliability and pollutant discharges.
本研究提出了一种不确定条件下的区间机会约束水质管理模型（ICC-WQM），用于规划区域环境管理。该方法基于区间线性规划（ILP）和机会约束规划（CCP）技术的集成。ICC-WQM 允许将以概率分布和区间值表示的不确定性纳入一般优化框架中。可以系统地反映环境管理系统的复杂性，从而极大地提高建模过程的适用性。该方法应用于中国天津滨海新区的化工产业发展规划。获得了与不同约束违反风险水平相关的区间解。它们可用于生成决策方案，从而帮助决策者在不同的水污染环境容量系统可靠性约束下确定所需的政策。还可以解决系统效益和约束违反风险之间的权衡问题。它们有助于支持（a）废水排放和政府投资决策，（b）制定有关水耗、经济发展和产业结构的地方政策，以及（c）分析经济效益、系统可靠性和污染物排放之间的相互作用。
