Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China.
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2017 Nov;24(33):26016-26028. doi: 10.1007/s11356-017-0199-4. Epub 2017 Sep 23.
Using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, this study explored the dynamic trends of water use and point source pollution in Urumqi (2000-2014) from an economic perspective. Retrospective analysis results indicated that total GDP and GDP per capita increased around tenfold and a fivefold since 2000. Total, municipal and industrial water use had average annual growth rates of 3.96, 7.01, and 3.69%, respectively. However, agricultural water use, emissions of COD and NH-N showed average annual decreases of 3.06, 12.40, and 4.74%. Regression models reveal that total water demand in Urumqi would keep monotonically increasing relationships with GDP and GDP per capita in the foreseeable years. However, the relations of specific water usage and economic growth showed diverse trends. In the future, the discharge of COD and NH-N would further reduce with economic growth. It could be concluded that Urumqi has almost passed the stage where economic growth had caused serious environment deterioration, but the increasing water demand in Urumqi is still an urgent problem. The obtained results would be helpful for water resources management and pollution control in the future.
本文利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说,从经济角度探讨了乌鲁木齐市(2000-2014 年)水利用和点源污染的动态变化趋势。回顾性分析结果表明,自 2000 年以来,乌鲁木齐的总 GDP 和人均 GDP 增长了约十倍和五倍。总用水量、城市用水量和工业用水量的年均增长率分别为 3.96%、7.01%和 3.69%。然而,农业用水量、COD 和 NH-N 的排放量却分别呈现出年均下降 3.06%、12.40%和 4.74%的趋势。回归模型表明,在可预见的未来,乌鲁木齐的总需水量将与 GDP 和人均 GDP 保持单调递增的关系。然而,具体用水量与经济增长的关系呈现出不同的趋势。未来,随着经济增长,COD 和 NH-N 的排放量将进一步减少。可以得出结论,乌鲁木齐已经几乎度过了经济增长导致严重环境恶化的阶段,但乌鲁木齐不断增加的用水需求仍是一个紧迫的问题。所得结果将有助于未来的水资源管理和污染控制。
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