Suzhou Institute of Research, North China Electric Power University, Suzhou 215123, China; Resources & Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Resources & Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Aug 15;524-525:280-9. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.032. Epub 2015 Apr 18.
A key issue facing integrated water resources management and water pollution control is to address the vague parametric information. A full credibility-based chance-constrained programming (FCCP) method is thus developed by introducing the new concept of credibility into the modeling framework. FCCP can deal with fuzzy parameters appearing concurrently in the objective and both sides of the constraints of the model, but also provide a credibility level indicating how much confidence one can believe the optimal modeling solutions. The method is applied to Heshui River watershed in the south-central China for demonstration. Results from the case study showed that groundwater would make up for the water shortage in terms of the shrinking surface water and rising water demand, and the optimized total pumpage of groundwater from both alluvial and karst aquifers would exceed 90% of its maximum allowable levels when credibility level is higher than or equal to 0.9. It is also indicated that an increase in credibility level would induce a reduction in cost for surface water acquisition, a rise in cost from groundwater withdrawal, and negligible variation in cost for water pollution control.
水资源综合管理与水污染控制面临的一个关键问题是解决参数信息不明确的问题。为此，通过在建模框架中引入可信度的新概念，开发了一种完全基于可信度的机会约束规划（FCCP）方法。FCCP 可以处理同时出现在目标和模型约束两侧的模糊参数，还可以提供一个可信度水平，表明对优化建模解决方案的信任程度。该方法应用于中国中南部的鹤水河流域进行了演示。案例研究结果表明，当可信度水平高于或等于 0.9 时，地下水将弥补地表水的短缺和不断上升的用水需求，冲积层和喀斯特含水层的地下水优化总开采量将超过其最大允许水平的 90%。研究还表明，可信度水平的提高将导致地表水采购成本的降低，地下水开采成本的增加，以及水污染控制成本的可忽略不计的变化。
