Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA.
Math Biosci Eng. 2011 Jan;8(1):171-82. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.171.
The 2009 A (H1N1) influenza pandemic was rather atypical. It began in North America at the start of the spring and in the following months, as it moved south, efforts to develop a vaccine that would mitigate the potential impact of a second wave were accelerated. The world's limited capacity to produce an adequate vaccine supply over just a few months resulted in the development of public health policies that "had" to optimize the utilization of limited vaccine supplies. Furthermore, even after the vaccine was in production, extensive delays in vaccine distribution were experienced for various reasons. In this note, we use optimal control theory to explore the impact of some of the constraints faced by most nations in implementing a public health policy that tried to meet the challenges that come from having access only to a limited vaccine supply that is never 100% effective.
2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行相当不典型。它始于北美春季伊始,随后数月,随着流感向南传播,人们加快了开发疫苗的步伐,以期减轻第二波疫情的潜在影响。全球在短短数月内生产足够疫苗的能力有限,导致制定了公共卫生政策,“必须”优化利用有限的疫苗供应。此外,即使在疫苗生产之后,由于各种原因,疫苗分发仍出现广泛延迟。在本说明中,我们使用最优控制理论来探讨大多数国家在实施公共卫生政策时面临的一些限制的影响,该政策试图应对仅获得有限且并非 100%有效的疫苗供应所带来的挑战。