MacMillan Katherine, Enscore Russell E, Ogen-Odoi Asaph, Borchert Jeff N, Babi Nackson, Amatre Gerald, Atiku Linda A, Mead Paul S, Gage Kenneth L, Eisen Rebecca J
Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3150 Rampart Road, Fort Collins, CO 80522, USA.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 Mar;84(3):435-42. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0571.
Plague, caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, is a severe, often fatal disease. This study focuses on the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda, where limited information is available regarding environmental and behavioral risk factors associated with plague infection. We conducted observational surveys of 10 randomly selected huts within historically classified case and control villages (four each) two times during the dry season of 2006 (N = 78 case huts and N = 80 control huts), which immediately preceded a large plague outbreak. By coupling a previously published landscape-level statistical model of plague risk with this observational survey, we were able to identify potential residence-based risk factors for plague associated with huts within historic case or control villages (e.g., distance to neighboring homestead and presence of pigs near the home) and huts within areas previously predicted as elevated risk or low risk (e.g., corn and other annual crops grown near the home, water storage in the home, and processed commercial foods stored in the home). The identified variables are consistent with current ecologic theories on plague transmission dynamics. This preliminary study serves as a foundation for future case control studies in the area.
由鼠疫耶尔森菌引起的鼠疫是一种严重的、往往致命的疾病。本研究聚焦于乌干达西尼罗河地区的鼠疫流行区,在该地区,关于与鼠疫感染相关的环境和行为风险因素的信息有限。我们在2006年旱季对历史上分类为病例和对照的村庄(各四个)中随机选择的10间小屋进行了两次观察性调查(病例小屋78间,对照小屋80间),此次调查紧接着一次大规模鼠疫爆发之前进行。通过将先前发表的鼠疫风险景观水平统计模型与此次观察性调查相结合,我们能够确定历史病例或对照村庄内与小屋相关的基于住所的潜在鼠疫风险因素(例如,与相邻宅基地的距离以及家附近猪的存在情况),以及先前预测为高风险或低风险区域内小屋的风险因素(例如,家附近种植的玉米和其他一年生作物、家中储水情况以及家中储存的加工商业食品)。所确定变量与当前关于鼠疫传播动力学的生态学理论一致。这项初步研究为该地区未来的病例对照研究奠定了基础。