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气候变化对非洲农业的风险。

Climate change risks for African agriculture.

机构信息

Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Mar 15;108(11):4313-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1015078108. Epub 2011 Feb 28.

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

摘要

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)对未来几十年气候变化对非洲农业和粮食安全造成的主要风险的评估,得到了对近期气候变化影响评估的审查的证实(14 项定量评估,6 项定性评估)。相对于当前生产水平,计量经济学预测的影响范围为-100%至+168%,基于过程的预测范围为-84%至+62%,统计评估的预测范围为-57%至+30%。尽管存在很大的不确定性,但从已发表的文献中可以得出一些对政策制定者和研究议程具有重要意义的结论:非洲各地的农业都面临着受到气候变化负面影响的风险;现有的种植系统和基础设施将不得不改变,以满足未来的需求。鉴于人口增长和负面气候影响的威胁,科学现在必须证明非洲的农业生产是否以及如何能够得到显著改善。

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