Singh Arshdeep, Arora Kashish, Chandra Babu Suresh
Department of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, Punjab, India.
Indian Council of Agricultural Research - National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), New Delhi, India.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 27;10(18):e36403. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36403. eCollection 2024 Sep 30.
Agriculture sector is major sufferer of climate change both at a global level as well as at India level. Cereals account for about 92 % of India's total food grain output and climate change has a significant influence on the production of cereals. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term and short-term effects of climatic and non-climatic variables, specifically temperature, precipitation, cereal area, total cropped area, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption, on cereal production in India. The study included annual time series data that covered the period from 1960 to 2018, covering a period of 58 years. Various econometric techniques were employed to examine these relationships. The validity of a long-term and short-term relationship among the relevant variables included in the study was validated by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test. The ARDL model's estimation outcomes reveals that input factors such as cereal area became a key factor in rising cereal production, as evidenced by its positive coefficient. Similarly, fertilizer consumption and precipitation had positive effects on production in the long run whereas total cropped area and minimum temperature has little influence over the results of production both in short run as well as long run. Furthermore, the long-term findings were also supported using econometric tools like Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) and Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS). These methods confirmed that variations in cereal production in India were significantly influenced by both climatic factors and agricultural inputs and factors. The study emphasizes the urgency for policymakers to prioritize proactive measures aimed at reducing the adverse impacts of climate change on cereal production in India. This necessitates a comprehensive strategy integrating sustainable practices, technological innovations, and robust policy frameworks to ensure resilient agricultural sectors and sustainable food production.
农业部门无论是在全球层面还是在印度层面，都是气候变化的主要受害者。谷物约占印度粮食总产量的92%，气候变化对谷物生产有重大影响。本研究旨在评估气候和非气候变量，特别是温度、降水、谷物种植面积、总种植面积、化肥消费量和农药消费量，对印度谷物生产的长期和短期影响。该研究纳入了涵盖1960年至2018年、长达58年的年度时间序列数据。采用了各种计量经济学技术来检验这些关系。通过运用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）技术和 Johansen 协整检验，验证了研究中所包含的相关变量之间长期和短期关系的有效性。ARDL 模型的估计结果表明，诸如谷物种植面积等投入因素成为谷物产量增长的关键因素，其正系数证明了这一点。同样，从长期来看，化肥消费量和降水对产量有积极影响，而总种植面积和最低温度在短期和长期对产量结果的影响都很小。此外，还使用了诸如典型协整回归（CCR）和完全修正最小二乘法（FMOLS）等计量经济学工具来支持长期研究结果。这些方法证实，印度谷物产量的变化受到气候因素和农业投入及因素的显著影响。该研究强调政策制定者迫切需要优先采取积极措施，以减少气候变化对印度谷物生产的不利影响。这需要一项综合战略，整合可持续做法、技术创新和强有力的政策框架，以确保农业部门具有韧性和可持续粮食生产。
