Ttofi Maria M, Farrington David P, Lösel Friedrich, Loeber Rolf
Institute of Criminology, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK.
Crim Behav Ment Health. 2011 Apr;21(2):80-9. doi: 10.1002/cbm.808.
Although bullying and delinquency share similar risk factors, no previous systematic review has ever been conducted to examine possible links between school bullying and criminal offending later in life.
To investigate the extent to which bullying perpetration at school predicts offending later in life, and whether this relation holds after controlling for other major childhood risk factors.
Results are based on a thorough systematic review and meta-analysis of studies measuring school bullying and later offending. Effect sizes are based on both published and unpublished studies; longitudinal investigators of 28 studies have conducted specific analyses for our review.
The probability of offending up to 11 years later was much higher for school bullies than for non-involved students [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.03-3.08]. Bullying perpetration was a significant risk factor for later offending, even after controlling for major childhood risk factors (OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.55-2.14). Effect sizes were smaller when the follow-up period was longer and larger when bullying was assessed in older children. The age of participants when outcome measures were taken was negatively related with effect sizes. Finally, the summary effect size did not decrease much as the number of controlled risk factors increased.
School bullying is a strong and specific risk factor for later offending. Effective anti-bullying programmes should be promoted, and could be viewed as a form of early crime prevention. Such programmes would have a high benefit : cost ratio.
尽管欺凌和犯罪行为有相似的风险因素，但此前从未有过系统综述来研究校园欺凌与日后犯罪之间可能存在的联系。
调查学校中的欺凌行为在多大程度上能够预测日后的犯罪行为，以及在控制其他主要童年风险因素后这种关系是否依然成立。
研究结果基于对测量校园欺凌和日后犯罪行为的研究进行的全面系统综述和荟萃分析。效应量基于已发表和未发表的研究；28项研究的纵向调查人员为我们的综述进行了具体分析。
在长达11年的时间里，欺凌者犯罪的可能性比未参与欺凌的学生高得多[优势比（OR）=2.50；95%置信区间（CI）：2.03 - 3.08]。即使在控制了主要童年风险因素之后，欺凌行为仍是日后犯罪的一个重要风险因素（OR = 1.82，95% CI：1.55 - 2.14）。随访期越长，效应量越小；在年龄较大的儿童中评估欺凌行为时，效应量越大。进行结果测量时参与者的年龄与效应量呈负相关。最后，随着控制的风险因素数量增加，汇总效应量并没有大幅下降。
校园欺凌是日后犯罪的一个强大且特定的风险因素。应推广有效的反欺凌项目，可将其视为早期预防犯罪的一种形式。此类项目将具有很高的效益成本比。
