Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health of Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Epidemiol Infect. 2012 Jan;140(1):78-86. doi: 10.1017/S0950268811000252. Epub 2011 Mar 4.
SUMMARYAcute respiratory infections (ARI) are the leading cause of death worldwide in children aged <5 years, and understanding contributing factors to their seasonality is important for targeting and implementing prevention strategies. In tropical climates, ARI typically peak during the pre-rainy and rainy seasons. One hypothesis is that rainfall leads to more time spent indoors, thus increasing exposure to other people and in turn increasing the risk of ARI. A case-crossover study design in 718 Bangladeshi children aged <5 years was used to evaluate this hypothesis. During a 3-month period with variable rainfall, rainfall was associated with ARI [odds ratio (OR) 2·97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·87-4·70]; some evidence of an increased strength of association as household crowding increased was found (≥3 people/room, OR 3·31, 95% CI 2·03-5·38), but there was a lack of association in some of the most crowded households (≥5 to <6 people/room, OR 1·55, 95% CI 0·54-4·47). These findings suggest that rainfall may be increasing exposure to crowded conditions, thus leading to an increased risk of ARI, but that additional factors not captured by this analysis may also play a role.
摘要急性呼吸道感染（ARI）是全球 5 岁以下儿童死亡的主要原因，了解其季节性的影响因素对于确定和实施预防策略至关重要。在热带气候中，ARI 通常在旱季和雨季前达到高峰。有一种假设认为，降雨会导致人们更多地待在室内，从而增加与他人接触的机会，进而增加患 ARI 的风险。在 718 名 5 岁以下的孟加拉国儿童中进行了一项病例交叉研究设计，以评估这一假设。在一个降雨量变化的 3 个月期间，降雨量与 ARI 相关（比值比 [OR] 2.97，95%置信区间 [CI] 1.87-4.70）；发现随着家庭拥挤程度的增加，关联强度有增加的迹象（≥3 人/间，OR 3.31，95% CI 2.03-5.38），但在一些最拥挤的家庭中（≥5 至 <6 人/间，OR 1.55，95% CI 0.54-4.47）没有关联。这些发现表明，降雨可能会增加接触拥挤条件的机会，从而增加患 ARI 的风险，但该分析未捕捉到的其他因素也可能起作用。
