Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health & Society Program, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2011 Mar-Apr;126(2):259-69. doi: 10.1177/003335491112600217.
We determined the effectiveness of a 23-valent-polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (PPV-23) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) in reducing adult pneumococcal mortality by comparing historically predicted declines in pneumococcal disease mortality with observed patterns since the introduction of PPV-23 and PCV-7, including analyses of age, gender, and racial/ethnic subgroups.
We analyzed all deaths registered on U.S. death certificates reporting any site of pneumococcal infection (e.g., meningitis, sepsis, pneumonia, bacteremia, and peritonitis) from 1968 to 2006. We used time-series dynamic linear regression on annual pneumococcal mortality rates to determine the percentage reduction in post-1983 mortality rates for a given increase in PPV-23 vaccination rates and post-2000 mortality rates for a given increase in PCV-7 vaccination rates.
Pneumococcal mortality decreased well before the introduction of PPV-23 in 1983 and again before the introduction of PCV-7 in 2000. The level of PPV-23 vaccination was associated with a direct and significant reduction in adult mortality, especially white female adults > or = 65 years of age. In contrast, the level of PCV-7 vaccination in the population was not associated with an indirect and significant reduction in pneumococcal mortality beyond the historical pace of decline.
PPV-23 introduction was associated with a reduction in pneumococcal mortality among older adults > or = 65 years of age beyond levels predicted by secular trends, whereas PCV-7 introduction was not. Mortality reduction was not uniformly experienced across the population, revealing the need for additional strategies to reduce pneumococcal mortality in older adults.
通过比较肺炎球菌疾病死亡率的历史预测下降与肺炎球菌 23 价多糖疫苗(PPV-23)和肺炎球菌结合疫苗(PCV-7)推出后观察到的模式,评估 23 价肺炎球菌多糖疫苗(PPV-23)和肺炎球菌结合疫苗(PCV-7)在降低成人肺炎球菌死亡率方面的效果,包括对年龄、性别和种族/民族亚组的分析。
我们分析了 1968 年至 2006 年美国死亡证明中登记的所有死于肺炎球菌感染(如脑膜炎、败血症、肺炎、菌血症和腹膜炎)的死亡病例。我们使用时间序列动态线性回归对每年的肺炎球菌死亡率进行分析,以确定在特定年份,PPV-23 接种率每增加 1%,1983 年后死亡率的降低百分比,以及 PCV-7 接种率每增加 1%,2000 年后死亡率的降低百分比。
在 1983 年推出 PPV-23 之前,以及在 2000 年推出 PCV-7 之前,肺炎球菌死亡率就已经明显下降。PPV-23 的接种水平与成人死亡率的直接显著降低有关,尤其是 65 岁及以上的白人女性。相比之下,人群中 PCV-7 的接种水平与肺炎球菌死亡率的间接显著降低无关,其降低幅度低于历史下降速度。
PPV-23 的推出与 65 岁及以上老年人的肺炎球菌死亡率的降低有关,其降低幅度超出了长期趋势的预测水平,而 PCV-7 的推出则没有。死亡率的降低并非在整个人群中均匀出现,这表明需要采取其他策略来降低老年人的肺炎球菌死亡率。