Department of Medicine, Laredo Medical Center, Laredo, Texas, USA.
Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2011 Jan;29(1):27-31.
To examine recent trends in hip fracture rates in Ecuador and predict the number of hip fractures over the next decades.
The Anuario de Egresos Hospitalarios, the national database of annual hospital discharges, was analyzed to determine the incidence of hip fractures among those 50 years of age and older in 1999-2008. Census estimates of the population were used as the denominator to calculate hip fracture rates per 100,000 persons. Hip fracture rates were then standardized by the direct method. The annual percentage change in hip fracture rates observed in the different age groups over the study period were used to predict the numbers of hip fractures among older adults by the years 2020, 2030, and 2050.
The number of hip fractures increased from 703 in 1999 to 1 315 in 2008. After controlling for age, hip fracture rates increased by 3.9% annually (95% Confidence Interval, 1.4-6.5), from 46.4/100,000 in 1999 to 62.4/100,000 in 2008. This increase in age-adjusted rates was mainly attributed to an increase in hip fractures among those 80 years of age or older. If the annual percentage change in age-specific rates continues, the total number of hip fractures among older adults in Ecuador will be about 3,909, 8,980, and 47,275 by the years 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively.
Hip fracture rates increased substantially among persons 50 years of age and older in Ecuador during the study period. As the population of Ecuador ages, the number of hip fractures is expected to increase considerably among those 80 years of age and older.
研究厄瓜多尔髋部骨折发生率的近期趋势，并预测未来几十年的髋部骨折数量。
分析国家年度医院出院数据库“Anuario de Egresos Hospitalarios”，以确定 1999 年至 2008 年期间 50 岁及以上人群髋部骨折的发生率。人口普查估计数被用作分母，以计算每 10 万人的髋部骨折率。然后采用直接法对髋部骨折率进行标准化。在研究期间，不同年龄组髋部骨折率的年变化百分比用于预测 2020 年、2030 年和 2050 年老年人髋部骨折的数量。
髋部骨折的数量从 1999 年的 703 例增加到 2008 年的 1315 例。在控制年龄因素后，髋部骨折率每年增加 3.9%（95%置信区间，1.4-6.5），从 1999 年的 46.4/100,000 增加到 2008 年的 62.4/100,000。这种年龄调整后发生率的增加主要归因于 80 岁及以上人群髋部骨折的增加。如果特定年龄组的年变化百分比继续保持，到 2020 年、2030 年和 2050 年，厄瓜多尔老年人髋部骨折的总数将分别约为 3909、8980 和 47275 例。
在研究期间，厄瓜多尔 50 岁及以上人群的髋部骨折发生率显著增加。随着厄瓜多尔人口老龄化，80 岁及以上人群的髋部骨折数量预计将大幅增加。
