Li Xinhai, Liu Xiaoming, Xu Lei, Zhang Zhibin
State Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Integr Zool. 2009 Dec;4(4):418-25. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2009.00144.x.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 continues to threaten domestic and wild birds, as well as human health. However, the mechanism of spatial transmission of HPAI is still unclear. We analyzed the current distribution of HPAI occurrences based on World Organization for Animal Health reported data from 3049 sites in the world from December 2003 to June 2006, and found that these sites were spaced at distances with a frequency peak of 100-200 km. We built a cellular automata model to simulate the spatial transmission process of HPAI as a function of transmission distance, variance of the transmission distance, infection rate, and transmission times (how many times HPAI transmits from one host to another before suppression). We determined that the transmission distance between HPAI occurrences is approximately 100 km on the basis of historical HPAI occurrences from 2003 to 2006 in both wild and domestic birds. To effectively reduce the long-distance spreading of HPAI, preventing close contact between domestic birds and waterfowl within a radius of 100 km around HPAI occurrence sites is essential.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1 继续威胁着家禽和野鸟以及人类健康。然而，高致病性禽流感的空间传播机制仍不清楚。我们根据世界动物卫生组织报告的 2003 年 12 月至 2006 年 6 月期间全球 3049 个地点的数据，分析了高致病性禽流感发生情况的当前分布，发现这些地点之间的距离间隔频率峰值在 100 - 200 公里。我们构建了一个细胞自动机模型，以模拟高致病性禽流感的空间传播过程，该过程是传播距离、传播距离方差、感染率和传播次数（在抑制之前高致病性禽流感从一个宿主传播到另一个宿主的次数）的函数。基于 2003 年至 2006 年野生和家禽中高致病性禽流感的历史发生情况，我们确定高致病性禽流感发生地点之间的传播距离约为 100 公里。为有效减少高致病性禽流感的远距离传播，防止在家禽发生地点周围 100 公里半径范围内的家禽与水禽密切接触至关重要。
