Li Renqiang, Tian Huidong, Li Xinhai
Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Integrated Pest Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of the Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaGraduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Integr Zool. 2010 Jun;5(2):154-163. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00198.x.
Climate change will cause range shifts of many species in the future. Galliformes might be particularly vulnerable to climate change, as they have low dispersal ability. Little is known about their possible responses to the future climate. We used a generalized additive model to predict the current and future ranges of all 63 Galliformes in China, based on a comprehensive species occurrence database and a combination of climate variables. Other environmental variables (e.g. elevation and human footprint index) were also considered, as well as the latitude and longitude of the occurrences. Principal component analysis was conducted to illustrate the association between environmental variables and Galliformes distributions. Using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario for 2071-2100, we projected that 29 species would have range shifts over 50%, including 13 endemic species. Galliformes at higher elevation face greater range shifts. Northward shifts are greater than those in other directions. We suggest conservationists pay special attention to the 29 Galliformes that face extensive range shifts, especially the endemic species among them.
气候变化将导致许多物种在未来发生分布范围的变化。鸡形目鸟类可能尤其容易受到气候变化的影响，因为它们的扩散能力较低。人们对它们对未来气候可能的反应知之甚少。我们基于一个全面的物种出现数据库和气候变量的组合，使用广义相加模型来预测中国所有63种鸡形目鸟类的当前和未来分布范围。还考虑了其他环境变量（如海拔和人类足迹指数）以及出现地点的经纬度。进行主成分分析以说明环境变量与鸡形目鸟类分布之间的关联。使用《排放情景特别报告》（SRES）A2情景下2071 - 2100年的气候变化情况，我们预计有29个物种的分布范围变化将超过50%，其中包括13个特有物种。海拔较高地区的鸡形目鸟类面临更大的分布范围变化。向北的变化大于其他方向。我们建议保护主义者特别关注面临广泛分布范围变化的这29种鸡形目鸟类，尤其是其中的特有物种。
