Department of Neurology, Plymouth Hospitals Trust, Derriford Hospital, Plymouth.
Clin Med (Lond). 2011 Feb;11(1):31-4. doi: 10.7861/clinmedicine.11-1-31.
Capacity and demand theory suggests that the presence of a queue is not necessarily an indication of a shortage of capacity in a system. It is much more likely that either there is a demand and capacity variation that creates queues or there is a delay designed into the system. A shortage of capacity is only really indicated where a backlog is not stable and continues to grow. In this article, data are taken from one NHS trust that provides evidence for a continually growing backlog for follow-up outpatient services. It is believed that these data are representative of most locations within the NHS in England and therefore suggest an immediate shortage in effective follow-up capacity. To avoid compromise to patient care, the problem will have to be addressed before the situation becomes unmanageable. The paper highlights options to reduce or deflect demand or to increase effective capacity.
能力和需求理论表明，队列的存在不一定表明系统的能力短缺。更有可能的是，要么存在需求和能力变化导致队列，要么系统中设计了延迟。只有在积压未稳定且持续增长的情况下，才真正表明存在能力短缺。本文的数据来自一家 NHS 信托基金，该基金提供了随访门诊服务持续积压的证据。据信，这些数据代表了英格兰 NHS 大多数地区的情况，因此表明有效随访能力立即短缺。为了避免影响患者护理，在情况变得无法控制之前，必须解决这个问题。本文强调了减少或转移需求或增加有效能力的选择。
