Department of Anthropology, University of Washington, WA 98195, USA.
J Int AIDS Soc. 2011 Mar 15;14:12. doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-14-12.
In their recent article, Sawers and Stillwaggon critique the "concurrency hypothesis" on a number of grounds. In this commentary, I focus on one thread of their argument, pertaining to the evidence derived from modelling work. Their analysis focused on the foundational papers of Morris and Kretzschmar; here, I explore the research that has been conducted since then, which Sawers and Stillwaggon leave out of their review. I explain the methodological limitations that kept progress on the topic slow at first, and the various forms of methodological development that were pursued to overcome these. I then highlight recent modelling work that addresses the various limitations Sawers and Stillwaggon outline in their article. Collectively, this line of research provides considerable support for the modelling aspects of the concurrency hypothesis, and renders their critique of the literature incomplete and obsolete. It also makes clear that their call for "an end (or at least a moratorium) to research on sexual behaviour in Africa" that pertains to concurrency is unjustified.
在他们最近的文章中，Sawers 和 Stillwaggon 基于多个理由对“并发假说”提出了批评。在这篇评论中，我将重点关注他们论证中的一个脉络，该脉络与从建模工作中得出的证据有关。他们的分析主要集中在 Morris 和 Kretzschmar 的基础论文上；在这里，我探讨了自那以后进行的研究，而这些研究 Sawers 和 Stillwaggon 在他们的综述中忽略了。我解释了最初阻碍该主题进展的方法学局限性，以及为克服这些局限性而采用的各种形式的方法学发展。然后，我强调了最近解决 Sawers 和 Stillwaggon 在文章中概述的各种局限性的建模工作。总的来说，这一系列研究为并发假说的建模方面提供了相当大的支持，使他们对文献的批评不完整且过时。这也清楚地表明，他们呼吁“停止（或至少暂停）对非洲性行为的研究”是没有道理的。
