CSIRO Marine Laboratories, 233 Middle St., Cleveland, Queensland 4163, Australia.
Risk Anal. 2011 Nov;31(11):1784-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01605.x. Epub 2011 Mar 30.
Ecological risk assessment embodied in an adaptive management framework is becoming the global standard approach for formally assessing and managing the ecological risks of technology and development. Ensuring the continual improvement of ecological risk assessment approaches is partly achieved through the dissemination of not only the types of risk assessment approaches used, but also their efficacy. While there is an increasing body of literature describing the results of general comparisons between alternate risk assessment methods and models, there is a paucity of literature that post hoc assesses the performance of specific predictions based on an assessment of risk and the effectiveness of the particular model used to predict the risk. This is especially the case where risk assessments have been used to grant consent or approval for the construction of major infrastructure projects. While postconstruction environmental monitoring is increasingly commonplace, it is not common for a postconstruction assessment of the accuracy and performance of the ecological risk assessment and underpinning model to be undertaken. Without this "assessment of the assessment," it is difficult for other practitioners to gain insight into the performance of the approach and models used and therefore, as argued here, this limits the rate of improvement of risk assessment approaches.
生态风险评估体现在自适应管理框架中，正在成为正式评估和管理技术和发展的生态风险的全球标准方法。确保生态风险评估方法的不断改进，部分是通过传播所使用的风险评估方法的类型及其功效来实现的。虽然越来越多的文献描述了替代风险评估方法和模型之间的一般比较结果，但很少有文献根据风险评估和用于预测风险的特定模型的有效性，事后评估特定预测的性能。在使用风险评估来同意或批准重大基础设施项目建设的情况下尤其如此。虽然建设后环境监测越来越普遍，但对建设后生态风险评估和基础模型的准确性和性能进行评估并不常见。如果没有这种“评估评估”，其他从业者就很难深入了解所使用的方法和模型的性能，因此，正如这里所争论的那样，这限制了风险评估方法的改进速度。
