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统计方法的变化影响了官方自杀率的有效性。

Changes in statistical methods affected the validity of official suicide rates.

机构信息

Department of Suicide Research and Prevention, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Nydalen, NO-Oslo, Norway.

出版信息

J Clin Epidemiol. 2011 Oct;64(10):1102-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.12.015. Epub 2011 Apr 7.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates whether changes in registration and coding practices influenced official suicide rates in Norway from 1988 to 2002.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A Poisson regression model was used to evaluate rates of suicide and potentially competing underlying causes of death. Setting in Norway 1988-2002.

RESULTS

From 1988 to 1994, suicide mortality decreased significantly, by 23.7%. Simultaneously, rates of causes of death potentially masking suicide decreased or remained fairly stable. From 1994 to 2002, however, there were no significant changes in suicide rates but accidental poisoning, which may mask suicide, increased significantly by 32.4%. Also, "ill-defined causes" of death increased by 16.7%, indicating poorer data quality.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the decreasing suicide rate in 1988-94 reflects a real change. However, the general quality of mortality statistics has deteriorated since the late 1990s, making it difficult to assess developments since 1994. Such variations in the reliability of official suicide statistics complicate international comparisons. However, shifts in the death rate because of "ill-defined" causes could serve as a warning that data quality is not consistent over time.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在探讨挪威 1988 年至 2002 年期间,登记和编码实践的变化是否对官方自杀率产生了影响。

研究设计与设置

采用泊松回归模型评估自杀率和潜在的竞争死亡原因。研究地点为挪威 1988 年至 2002 年。

结果

1988 年至 1994 年期间,自杀死亡率显著下降了 23.7%。与此同时,潜在掩盖自杀的死因的比例下降或保持相对稳定。然而,从 1994 年至 2002 年,自杀率没有显著变化,但可能掩盖自杀的意外中毒率却显著上升了 32.4%。此外,“死因不明”的比例上升了 16.7%,表明数据质量较差。

结论

本研究表明,1988 年至 1994 年自杀率的下降反映了真实的变化。然而,自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来,死亡率统计数据的总体质量已经恶化,使得难以评估 1994 年以来的发展情况。由于“死因不明”导致的死亡率变化可能是一个警告,表明数据质量在不同时期并不一致。然而,由于“死因不明”导致的死亡率变化可能是一个警告,表明数据质量在不同时期并不一致。然而,由于“死因不明”导致的死亡率变化可能是一个警告,表明数据质量在不同时期并不一致。

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