Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet. 2011 Aug 6;378(9790):515-25. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61505-X. Epub 2011 Apr 8.
Modelling is valuable in the planning and evaluation of interventions, especially when a controlled trial is ethically or logistically impossible. Models are often used to calculate the expected course of events in the absence of more formal assessments. They are also used to derive estimates of rare or future events from recorded intermediate points. When developing models, decisions are needed about the appropriate level of complexity to be represented and about model structure and assumptions. The degree of rigor in model development and assessment can vary greatly, and there is a danger that existing beliefs inappropriately influence judgments about model assumptions and results.
建模在干预措施的规划和评估中很有价值，尤其是当进行对照试验在伦理或操作上不可行时。模型通常用于在缺乏更正式评估的情况下计算预期事件的过程。它们还用于从记录的中间点推断罕见或未来事件的估计值。在开发模型时，需要就所表示的适当复杂程度以及模型结构和假设做出决策。模型开发和评估的严格程度可能有很大差异，并且存在现有信念不恰当地影响对模型假设和结果的判断的风险。
