Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatic Engineering, UCL, UK.
Environ Int. 2011 Jul;37(5):1019-29. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2011.03.015. Epub 2011 Apr 9.
With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities, insurance companies and residents to better understand, prepare for and manage a large-scale flood in urban environments.
随着气候变化和城市化进程的加快，预计洪水的发生和影响将显著增加。洪水可能会将病原体带入房屋，并导致建筑物中持续潮湿和微生物生长，其生长和持续时间取决于洪水的体积以及化学和生物含量、污染微生物的特性以及周围环境条件，包括恢复时间和方法、围护结构的热湿传递特性以及建筑材料维持微生物生长的能力。公共卫生风险将取决于这些复杂过程的相互作用以及受灾地区居民的脆弱性和易感性。在英国 2007 年洪灾之后，皮特审查指出，缺乏有关洪水后房屋管理和处理的相关科学证据和一致性，这不仅使当地居民面临风险，而且还导致恢复工作不必要地延迟。了解英国建筑存量中不同情况下洪水淹没建筑物的干燥行为以及微生物污染物在这些建筑物内生长、持续存在和产生毒素的能力，可以为恢复工作提供信息。为了为未来的洪水管理做出贡献，本文提出使用建筑模拟和生物模型来预测英国典型建筑物中微生物污染的风险。我们回顾了洪水后生物污染的最新技术状况、相关建筑模拟、与模拟相关的微生物建模以及洪水修复中的当前实际考虑因素。以伦敦市为例，提出了一种使用 GIS 作为平台的方法，将干燥模型和微生物风险模型与当地建筑存量和洪水模型集成在一起。该集成工具将帮助地方政府、卫生当局、保险公司和居民更好地理解、准备和管理城市环境中的大规模洪水。
