University of South Florida, Department of Integrative Biology, 4202 East Fowler Ave., Tampa, FL 33620, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2011 Jun;26(6):270-7. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2011.03.002. Epub 2011 Apr 12.
The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change-infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host-parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host-parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.
气候变化通常会增加人类和野生动物疾病的说法引起了公众的广泛关注，但仍存在争议，似乎与气候变化也将导致寄生虫灭绝的预期不一致。在这篇综述中，我们通过回顾使这一争议难以解决的知识空白，强调了气候变化与传染病研究的前沿。我们建议，通过更多的跨学科合作，更好地将数据和模型联系起来，解决混杂变量和背景依赖性问题，以及应用代谢理论来考虑群落水平的相互作用和功能特征，以宿主-寄生虫系统为对象，可以改进对气候变化对疾病影响的预测。最后，尽管我们强调了宿主-寄生虫相互作用，但我们也强调了这些观点对气候变化对物种相互作用的一般影响的适用性。
