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生命统计工具(LiST)中使用的方法。

Methods used in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST).

机构信息

Futures Institute, 41-A New London Turnpike, Glastonbury, Connecticut 06033, USA.

出版信息

BMC Public Health. 2011 Apr 13;11 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):S32. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-S3-S32.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Choosing an optimum set of child health interventions for maximum mortality impact is important within resource poor policy environments. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) is a computer model that estimates the mortality and stillbirth impact of scaling up proven maternal and child health interventions. This paper will describe the methods used to estimate the impact of scaling up interventions on neonatal and child mortality.

MODEL STRUCTURE AND ASSUMPTIONS

LiST estimates mortality impact via five age bands 0 months, 1-5 months, 6-11 months, 12-23 months and 24 to 59 months. For each of these age bands reductions in cause specific mortality are estimated. Nutrition interventions can impact either nutritional statuses or directly impact mortality. In the former case, LiST acts as a cohort model where current nutritional statuses such as stunting impact the probability of stunting as the cohort ages. LiST links with a demographic projections model (DemProj) to estimate the deaths and deaths averted due to the reductions in mortality rates.

USING LIST

LiST can be downloaded at http://www.jhsph.edu/dept/ih/IIP/list/ where simple instructions are available for installation. LiST includes default values for coverage and effectiveness for many less developed countries obtained from credible sources.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of LiST is a continuing process. Via technical inputs from the Child Health Epidemiological Group, effectiveness values are updated, interventions are adopted and new features added.

摘要

背景

在资源匮乏的政策环境下,选择一组最佳的儿童健康干预措施以实现最大的死亡率影响非常重要。生命挽救工具(LiST)是一种计算机模型,用于估计扩大经过验证的母婴健康干预措施对死亡率和死产的影响。本文将介绍用于估计扩大干预措施对新生儿和儿童死亡率影响的方法。

模型结构和假设

LiST 通过五个年龄组 0 个月、1-5 个月、6-11 个月、12-23 个月和 24 至 59 个月来估计死亡率影响。对于每个年龄组,估计特定原因的死亡率降低。营养干预措施可以影响营养状况或直接影响死亡率。在前一种情况下,LiST 充当队列模型,其中当前的营养状况(如发育迟缓)会影响队列年龄时发育迟缓的概率。LiST 与人口预测模型(DemProj)链接,以估计由于死亡率降低而导致的死亡和避免的死亡。

使用 LiST:LiST 可在 http://www.jhsph.edu/dept/ih/IIP/list/ 下载,那里有安装的简单说明。LiST 包括从可靠来源获得的许多欠发达国家的覆盖率和有效性的默认值。

结论

LiST 的开发是一个持续的过程。通过儿童健康流行病学小组的技术投入,更新有效性值、采用干预措施并添加新功能。

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