[A five-year follow-up study of recipient rates for welfare allowance for the disabled elderly in a metropolitan area].

Improvement of the domiciliary care system for the disabled elderly is one of the most urgent issues of welfare for the elderly. In order to understand more clearly the utilization of domiciliary care service in a metropolitan area, we studied recipient rates for welfare allowance for disabled elderly which was the most frequently used welfare service. Between October 1984 and March 1985 a baseline survey was performed on a random sample of elderly living at home, aged from 65 to 89, in Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo. A follow-up survey of this sample of 873 persons was performed in November 1989 where survival and their recipience of welfare allowance were reviewed. The main results were as follows: 1. Recipient proportion of welfare allowance increased rapidly with disability of ADL. Of the severely disabled elderly at the baseline the recipient proportion was 46%. During the following five years 27% of the severely disabled were accepted as new recipients. 2. Recipient proportion of elderly who died at age 75 or greater for the following five years was more than 30%. 3. The recipient incidence rate of those who were non-recipient at baseline increased significantly with age after controlling for ADL. This indicates that the risk of ADL disability increases with age. 4. Mean recipient duration varied according to age. Mean durations for those aged over 80 and those under 80 were 2.1 years and 3.9 years respectively.