Centre of National Research on Disability and Rehabilitation Medicine, The University of Queensland, Edith Cavell Building, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston, Qld, 4029, Australia.
BMC Public Health. 2011 Apr 29;11:270. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-270.
Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions.
Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model.
Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data.
Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.
道路安全目标被广泛应用，为评估道路安全结果相对于量化目标的进展提供了依据。在澳大利亚，降低道路交通碰撞（RTC）造成的死亡率是公共政策目标：2001 年设定了到 2010 年每 10 万人死亡率不超过 5.6 人的国家目标。本文旨在检验澳大利亚及其州和地区在降低 RTC 死亡率方面取得的进展，并估计各司法管辖区何时能达到 2010 年的目标。
在描述性分析之后，单变量时间序列模型估计了最近几十年里死亡率的过去趋势。分析了不同时间段的数据，并对不同的趋势进行了估计。根据统计标准和数据涵盖的时间段，选择了首选模型。首选回归的结果用于确定各司法管辖区何时能达到国家目标的样本外预测。虽然所使用的时间序列方法存在局限性，但数据不足使得无法估计完整的因果/结构模型。
所有司法管辖区自 1971 年以来死亡率均呈显著下降趋势，自 1992 年以来全国平均每年下降 3%。然而，这些收益在时间和空间上有所不同，1972-1981 年新南威尔士州的死亡率变化率上升 8%，1982-1991 年昆士兰州的死亡率变化率下降 46%。根据过去趋势的估计，到 2016 年，全国可能无法实现 2010 年设定的目标。不出所料，该分析表明，各司法管辖区的结果存在一系列差异，但由于假设和数据长度不同，这些结果应谨慎解释。
结果表明，尽管澳大利亚在最近几十年里成功降低了 RTC 死亡率，但在愿望和成就之间仍存在重要差距。此外，除非影响 RTC 死亡率的因素发生相当大的（“打破趋势”）变化，否则在澳大利亚的一些地区，未来几年内，RTC 死亡人数仍可能高于国家目标。
